13 Feb 2014
Flash: Risk of Australia printing worst jobless rate since 2003 - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Australia’s Jan labour force report at 00.30 GMT is AUD’s key domestic data not just for this week but until late Feb, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"The shock headline reading of -23k jobs in Dec (with full-time jobs -32k) should set up a decent bounce in January, if only in terms of statistical noise."
"Westpac views Dec weakness as overdone so we look for a 25k rebound in Jan, above the median for 15k (range +5k to +40k)."
"However, we see the unemployment rate rising to 6.0% from 5.8% (median 5.9%) as the participation rate should rebound from the slide to 64.6% in Dec, a clear low since 2006."
"If this is correct, it would be the highest unemployment rate since 2003."
Key Quotes
"The shock headline reading of -23k jobs in Dec (with full-time jobs -32k) should set up a decent bounce in January, if only in terms of statistical noise."
"Westpac views Dec weakness as overdone so we look for a 25k rebound in Jan, above the median for 15k (range +5k to +40k)."
"However, we see the unemployment rate rising to 6.0% from 5.8% (median 5.9%) as the participation rate should rebound from the slide to 64.6% in Dec, a clear low since 2006."
"If this is correct, it would be the highest unemployment rate since 2003."