US: Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, and leading economic indicators in focus - BBH

The US data today includes weekly jobless claims, the July Philly Fed survey, and leading economic indicators which are likely to garner maximum investors’ attention, according to analysts at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“Although there has been some increased speculation that the US is recession-bound, evidence is unlikely to be seen in today's report.  Weekly jobless claims have edged higher recently, with the four-week moving average rising to its highest level in three months, though 246k is still consistent with a robust labor market.  Note that claims data is for the week that the survey for the national figures was conducted.”

“Leading economic indicators are also not suggesting anything like a recession.  The LEI has averaged 0.4 this year and 0.2 last year.  The June report is expected to match this year's average.  If an economic downturn were approaching, one would expect weekly initial jobless claims to rise sharply and for the LEI to turn down.”