US retail sales probably inched up only 0.1% in June – BMO CM

US headline retail sales probably inched up only 0.1% in June, as a large drop in gasoline prices (their fifth consecutive fall) depressed receipts at service stations, according to Michael Gregory, Deputy Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Key Quotes

‘The slight braking of vehicle sales in the month (interestingly, their fifth fall so far this year) likely had a minimal impact on the headline result (so +0.1% ex-autos), with the ex-autos-and-gas aggregate advancing a respectable 0.4%. The latter is in line with the underlying trend of the past five months, emphasizing that consumers remain in good shape. Recall this interval has been very volatile, with monthly moves oscillating between those in a strong 0.7%-to-0.8% range (three of them) and those in a weak -0.2%-to-0.0% range (two).”