UK: Mixed results expected from the flurry of hard data - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for mixed results in the flurry of hard data for May from the United Kingdom.

Key Quotes

“We see for upside in manufacturing production at +0.7% m/m (mkt 0.5%), in line with our other above-consensus IP forecasts but look for construction activity to disappoint at -0.3% m/m (mkt 0.7%).”

“For trade today, markets are looking for the visible trade balance to worsen a bit from -£10.4bn in April to -£10.9bn in May.  Later today we also get the NIESR GDP estimate for June, which should give us a better idea of where Q2 GDP is tracking, and how much of a rebound we should see from the disappointing 0.2% q/q Q1 reading.”

“Germany: While we were looking for substantial upside for today’s German IP data, the details from yesterday’s factory orders report had us pare back our expectations. The shipments data are consistent with around a +0.5% m/m gain in IP, only slightly above consensus’ at +0.2%.”