Another strong month of US payroll employment gains? - Nomura

Our models and incoming data uniformly point to another strong month of payroll employment gains.

Key Quotes:

"We expect that nonfarm payroll employment in June increased by 165k, a pace similar to its six-month average of 161k, with private employment increasing by 160k and a 5k contribution from government."

"One note of caution is that the month-to-month changes in payroll employment have been volatile lately."

"In December through February, payroll gains averaged 201k."

"Between March and May, growth slowed to an average of 121k."

"Part of the deceleration could have been weather related, reflecting abnormally mild weather in January and February."

"Cutting through these changes, the important takeaway is that the recent pace of job growth exceeds the growth in the working-age population, reducing labor market slack."