US: Durable goods and FOMC minutes in focus – BBH

The final US May durable goods orders and factory orders are unlikely to capture the market's imagination but on the flip side, the FOMC minutes may be more interesting, suggests the research team at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“Participants are looking for insight into two things.  First, even though the Fed hiked, how cautious are Fed officials in the wake of disappointing economic data and the four-month softening of measured inflation.  Second, observers are looking for more details about when the balance sheet operations will begin.”

“We see more observers coming to our view that an announcement to start not recycling the maturing issues fully will be made at the September FOMC meeting (for October start).  This would likely be followed by what would be the third rate hike of the year more likely to be delivered in December (data permitting).  In terms of data, this week's employment report is the highlight and improvement is expected in the June report.”