10 Feb 2014
Flash: Risk NZ data may push RBNZ rate hike projections further - BNZ
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Craig Ebert, Senior Economist at Bank of New Zealand, there might still be a risk of further pricing in rate hikes by the RBNZ, should data be supportive going forward.
Key Quotes
"If the NZ housing market is slowing it is doing so only gently. This calls into question the belief that the market would come a cropper as soon as low-deposit loans were restricted, as they have been in major way for a while now (even pre-dating the 1 October imposition from the RBNZ). It suggests there must be an awful lot else conspiring to fluff local house prices up."
"As for where market pricing has settled after all the RBNZ announcements and commentary, and the heaving Q4 labour market data, it is pretty much in line with the 90-day bank bill track as prescribed in the December Monetary Policy Statement."
"Yes, more sure of a 25bp hike, to 2.75%, in March, but similar with an inferred OCR of around 4.25% by end-2015. The question is whether the NZ data and outlook can push it any further in due course, as might still seem the risk."
Key Quotes
"If the NZ housing market is slowing it is doing so only gently. This calls into question the belief that the market would come a cropper as soon as low-deposit loans were restricted, as they have been in major way for a while now (even pre-dating the 1 October imposition from the RBNZ). It suggests there must be an awful lot else conspiring to fluff local house prices up."
"As for where market pricing has settled after all the RBNZ announcements and commentary, and the heaving Q4 labour market data, it is pretty much in line with the 90-day bank bill track as prescribed in the December Monetary Policy Statement."
"Yes, more sure of a 25bp hike, to 2.75%, in March, but similar with an inferred OCR of around 4.25% by end-2015. The question is whether the NZ data and outlook can push it any further in due course, as might still seem the risk."