Canada: Poloz’s appearance at an ECB conference to be highlight next week – Deutsche Bank

Next week’s Canadian economic calendar will be highlighted by BoC Governor Poloz’s appearance at an ECB central banking conference and Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson’s speech in Calgary, both on Wednesday.

Key Quotes

“Poloz has already given his de facto endorsement of the shift in market expectations for the BoC and is unlikely to provide much new information given that he will be taking part in a panel discussion focused on longer-term policy challenges. However, Deputy Governor Patterson’s speech may be more relevant in terms of providing details on what the BoC will be assessing as the year progresses.”

“To be sure, continued growth is a necessary condition for any change in interest rate policy. At the time of this publication, we had not received the latest retail sales data for April. However, we do expect some slowdown in April GDP (+0.1% forecast vs. +0.5% previously), released on Friday. The outlook for inflation will no doubt be important, as well. The industrial product price index (+0.4% vs. +0.6%) should remain sturdy in May, keeping the year-over-year growth rate of the series at an elevated 5.5%. The BoC senior loan officer survey and the business outlook surveys for Q2 will also be factors shaping the BoC’s views going into the July 12 policy meeting, which will be accompanied by a press conference and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.”