AUD/JPY - 200-DMA is a tough nut to crack

AUD/JPY is well bid this Tuesday morning in Asia, with the bulls eyeing a break above the 200-DMA of 83.11.

The question is whether the cross will hold above the key long-term moving average today. For the last three trading days, a move above 200-DMA was met with fresh offers.

Focus on NAB Business Confidence & Conditions

The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) business survey conditions were at historically high levels in April. However, the details had revealed mixed leading indicators - drop in the capacity utilization rate, weaker capex and softer forward orders. Thus, there is some potential for a pull back in May’s numbers due at 1:30 GMT today.

AUD/JPY may once again have a tough time holding above the 200-DMA if the NAB data prints weak. On the other hand, an improvement in the forward looking indicators in the NAB survey may help the AUD extend gains beyond the 200-DMA.

Iron ore recovers from 11-month low

Iron ore recovered on Monday, recouping some of the losses recorded on Friday, when it fell to a 11-month low of $54.41 per tonne. The uptick in iron ore prices could protect the downside in the AUD.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

The pair clocked a high of 83.16 today and was last seen trading around 83.08 levels. A break above 83.11 (200-DMA) would expose 83.39 (June 9 - Doji candle high). Only a daily close above the same would signal continuation of the rally from 81.78 (June 6 low) and open doors for 84.63 (100-DMA).

On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 82.64 (10-DMA) could yield a sell-off to 82.33 (May 17 low) and 81.77 (May 18 low).