31 Jan 2014
Flash: ECB to take some action, EUR towards 1.33h handle? - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, suggests the EUR is trying to base currently ahead of the 1.33 handle.
Key Quotes:
"EURUSD pressed below the 100-day MA again yesterday; it has done the same thing on a handful of occasions since September and quickly recovered. This time, the overall trend looks a little less constructive and there is support from weakening short-term moving average signals—as well as today’s weaker than expected Eurozone CPI data which has weighed on EUR sentiment."
"The weaker than expected headline data will drive simmering speculation that the ECB could take some rate action at next week’s policy meeting (we rather expect policy to remain on hold). A push to the low 1.35s marks the deepest infringement of the 100-day MA since September and while it increases the risk of a deeper drop in EURUSD (towards 1.33) in the days ahead, short-term price signals suggest that the EUR is trying to base. We may have seen the intraday low already and spot might squeeze back towards the upper 1.35s from here."
Key Quotes:
"EURUSD pressed below the 100-day MA again yesterday; it has done the same thing on a handful of occasions since September and quickly recovered. This time, the overall trend looks a little less constructive and there is support from weakening short-term moving average signals—as well as today’s weaker than expected Eurozone CPI data which has weighed on EUR sentiment."
"The weaker than expected headline data will drive simmering speculation that the ECB could take some rate action at next week’s policy meeting (we rather expect policy to remain on hold). A push to the low 1.35s marks the deepest infringement of the 100-day MA since September and while it increases the risk of a deeper drop in EURUSD (towards 1.33) in the days ahead, short-term price signals suggest that the EUR is trying to base. We may have seen the intraday low already and spot might squeeze back towards the upper 1.35s from here."