US: Headline CPI to increase by 0.2% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US headline CPI to increase by 0.2% (0.249%) m-o-m in April, which translates into y-o-y inflation of 2.293% (Consensus: +0.2% m-o-m, +2.3% y-o-y).

Key Quotes

“Gasoline prices rose moderately in April and higher agricultural commodity prices continue to push up food prices. Excluding energy and food prices, we think core CPI inflation will return to a trend-like increase of +0.2% (+0.174%) m-o-m in April, following a surprising 0.1% decline in March, which translates to the 12-month change rate of 2.0% (1.993%) in April (Consensus: +0.2% m-o-m, +2.0% y-o-y). That said, despite the unexpected drop in March, we do not think that the risk of core inflation substantially overshooting our forecast is high, given that some of the weakness in March could persist for a while. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 244.745.”