US: Import prices and budget in focus - Nomura

In view of the analysts at Nomura, import prices data and budget for the month of March will be the key economic releases for the day.

Key Quotes

“Import prices: Import prices were up 0.2% m-o-m in February following a 0.6% increase in January. Petroleum import prices declined after strong increases in January and December. On the other hand, consumer goods import prices (excluding food, fuel, and autos), a relevant component of core CPI, increased at a steady pace. In March, oil prices trended lower, which may have offset increases in other components of import prices. For March, consensus expects a 0.2% m-o-m decrease in headline import prices. Note that incoming import prices may affect our March inflation forecast.”

“US Budget: The US budget came in at a deficit of $192bn in February after posting a surplus of $51bn in January due to seasonal quirks. February’s $192bn deficit mirrored the reading from one year earlier of a deficit of $193bn. Given the calendar pattern of the budget statement overall, another deficit posting in March would not be unreasonable after a deficit of $108bn one year earlier.”