US ADP employment: Another sharp increase in March - Natixis

Thomas Julien, Research Analyst at Natixis, notes that the US ADP employment increased by 263K in March (after 245K in February), well above consensus expectations.

Key Quotes

“Employment rose at a faster pace in the services sector and remained solid in the goods producing sectors driven by construction and manufacturing. We keep our NFP forecast unchanged (at +190K) with an upward risk.”

“ADP employment increased by 263K in March (after 245K in February, revised downward), well above consensus expectations (185K) and ours (220K). Job gains accelerated in the services and remained solid in the construction and manufacturing sectors.”

“All in all, even though today’s report surprised on the upside, we keep our NFP forecast unchanged at 190K. In the recent months, ADP overshot NFP by a large margin. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased slightly during the reference period while weather conditions were also less favourable (with a blizzard during the reference period). The employment component of the ISM nonmanufacturing (to be released at 10AM) should bring more information on the evolution of employment in services sectors in March.”