AUD/USD: 0.7551 200 day ma eyed - Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD's near term outlook is neutralising. 

Key Quotes:

"The currency pair continues to hold from the 2017 support line at 0.7606, but this is looking exposed. The intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that the bounce does not have much further to run. We are unable to rule out a retest of the 0.7740/78 resistance area but this is less favoured (the February as well as November 8 th highs). Failure here will target the 0.7551 200 day ma.

Longer term outlook neutralising: Should a rise as well as daily chart close above the 0.7778 level be seen, the April 2016 high at 0.7836 would be in focus. The market remains capped by the 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement, but it is possible that it is base building. Where are we wrong? We are neutral to positive above 0.7490, the March low. Above 0.7850 would target the 200 month ma at .7940. 

Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Bid above 0.7492.

Long term trend (1-3 months): It is possibly basing below the 0.7836/50 2016 high."