When is Eurozone flash CPI and how could affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone CPI flash estimate Overview

Eurostat will publish the euro zone's inflation first estimate for March at 09.00GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to show a drop to 1.8% on a yearly basis, following the 2.0% growth seen previously. While the core figures are expected to show no growth, and would remain steady at 0.9% y/y in March.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

If the CPI comes weaker-than-expected it would completely squash of tapering/ rate hike hopes from the ECB this year, which would trigger fresh sell-off in EUR/USD, knocking-off the rate back towards 1.0670 region. On the other hand, a stronger CPI data could rescue the bulls from the recent declines, lifting the major back beyond 1.0700.

Key notes

Eurozone: Focus remains on inflation – Danske Bank

“We expect headline inflation decline to 1.6% in March, from 2.0% in February, driven partly by a fall in core inflation from 0.9% to 0.7%. If this core inflation figure is correct, it will be the lowest since April 2016.”

About Eurozone CPI flash estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).