CAD has been particularly choppy – BBH

Analysts at BBH explain that while short-run streaks have characterized the recent price action of several currencies, the Canadian dollar is an exception and has been particularly choppy.  

Key Quotes

“The US dollar's recent peak against the Canadian dollar was on March 9, nearly a week before the Fed's hike, and took a big step down on the announcement.  It covered half of this year's range over eight sessions, moving from CAD1.3535 to CAD1.3265.   The CAD1.3250 is the 50% retracement of the US dollar gains since late January's low near CAD1.2970.  The 61.8% retracement is near CAD1.3185, while the 200-day moving average is a little above CAD1.3190.”

“We note that the (60-day) correlation between (percentage) change of the two-year interest rate differential between the US and Canada and the exchange rate is around 0.65, the strongest in more than a decade.   The RSI and Slow Stochastics are somewhat more favorable than the MACDs, but they may turn with any additional US dollar gains.”