US Dollar around 101.50 post-US data

The US Dollar Index – which gauges the buck vs. a basket of trade-weighed rivals – keeps its positive bias unchanged on Monday around the mid-101.00s.

US Dollar muted after data

The index stayed apathetic after US Factory Orders have matched estimates for the month of January, expanding at a monthly 1.2% vs. December’s 1.3% gain.

In the meantime, USD remains within a narrow range, so far supported near 101.20 and with gains limited just above 101.60, all amidst increasing cautiousness and rising expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at next week’s meeting.

Yields in US money market are accompanying the up move in DXY today, with the 10-year reference gravitating around the key 2.50% level. According to Reuters, the probability of a higher rates later in the month is at 83%, always based on Fed Funs futures prices.

From the speculative positioning, USD net longs continued to retreat during the week ended on February 28 according to the latest CFTC report, dropping to levels last seen in mid-October 2016.

US Dollar relevant levels

The index is advancing 0.15% at 101.50 facing the next up barrier at 102.05 (38.2% fibo of the 2017 drop) followed by 102.17 (high Mar.3) and finally 102.27 (high Mar.2). On the flip side, a breakdown of 101.34 (55-day sma) would open the door to 101.22 (low Mar.1) and then 101.08 (20-day sma).