France: 2017 elections stealing the limelight – Deutsche Bank

Marc de-Muizon, Economist at Deutsche Bank, summarises the key trends and metrics that should be monitored in the 2017 race to the Elysee in France.

Key Quotes

“While in the last few weeks the risks of a Le Pen victory appear to have increased, her polling disadvantage remains outside the polling errors associated with Brexit and Trump.”

“Le Pen’s chances of qualifying for the second round appear high, based not only on recent first-round polls, but also on the fact that more than 75% of interviewees declaring that they would vote for her in the first round indicate that they are certain of their choice. This solid support has so far been a constant in Le Pen’s polls. The lack of solid support remains Macron’s Achilles heel but Fillon’s strength. Bayrou’s recent alliance with Macron appears to have helped the independent candidate a little on this metric.”

“In the second round, Macron appears likely to beat Le Pen slightly more comfortably than Fillon would, because more left-wing first-round voters would reportedly choose Macron rather than abstaining. Interestingly, polls suggest that Le Pen would capture more of the first-round voters in the second round against Macron than Fillon. But Fillon’s margin over her appears lower as polls indicate that abstention would be higher under a Fillon-Le Pen second round.”

“In the 2015 regional elections, polls three weeks before the election suggested that Marine Le Pen would win the North region and the other National Front candidate Marion-Maréchal Le Pen could win in the Southeast. They were both ultimately defeated by centre-right candidates by a large margin. Can such a high turnout to block the National Front in the second round be repeated? This remains one of the big unknowns of the 2017 Presidential election.”

“Finally, over the last few days, Macron appears to have benefited from Bayrou’s support, while a Hamon-Mélenchon alliance has been confirmed by both politicians as extremely unlikely.”