EUR/JPY 'against the ropes' near 100-DMA; When would the debt music stop Greece?

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 119.81, down  -0.15% or (17)-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 120.31 and low at 119.63.

The euro vs. Japanese yen has experienced a quiet trading day as the currency cross drifted south (60)-pips from the 120.30 handle, this price action moved the exchange rate closer to its 100-DMA that has the potential to serve as critical support to witness a bounce back to 121.00 or the last stand before a sell-off that could end near 117.70.

Today's economic docket had Purchasing Managers Index or PMI from europe's titans; France and Germany. The readings were mixed as the french PMI clocked 52.3 'a worse than expected' result below 53.5 consensus and 53.6 previous. On the other hand, the german version printed a healthy 57 'a better than expected' result above 56 consensus and 56.4 previous.

Greece greatest billboard hit: 'IMF got the bailout'

As the Editorial Board at NYT reported, "Greece and other European countries can invest in improving crumbling public services and infrastructure. Buses in Athens make do with worn-out tires, often at great risk to public safety, because there is not enough money for spare parts. And hospitals cannot hire doctors or buy medicines and syringes."

How Germany, IMF and company expect to solve one core issue without pulverizing the euro in the process? Evidently, the debt music would keep playing for Greece until sometime 2018 as the extension from creditors added another short-term fix to a corrosive spread disease. Hence, a hammered and molested mid-class, a political inclined tax system and another bailout that only Athens knows where it goes, build a strong case for an inevitable sovereign default that promises to crack the euro and the European Union; altogether.

EUR/JPY analysis: still at risk of a bearish extension

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 8-weeks that EUR/JPY cross had the best trading day at +0.94% (Jan.18) or 114-pips, and the worst at -1.05% (Feb.6) or (126)-pips. As of writing, the US 10yr treasury yields rose from 2.43% to 2.45%, up +1.78% on the day or +0.0429.

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 121.84 (50-DMA), then at 123.30 (high Jan.27) and above that at 124.08 (high Dec.15). While supports are aligned at 119.18 (100-DMA), later at 117.72 (200-DMA) and below that at 116.20 (low Nov.17). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to make a push lower into the oversold territory. Therefore, there is evidence to expect euro gains in the near term.

On the long-term view, the currency cross continued its healthy and deeper pullback, as of writing, trading (410)-pips below 124.08 short-term top. To the downside, supports are aligned at 118.40 (short-term 61.8% Fib), then at 116.76 (short-term 50% Fib) and below that at 115.00 (short-term 38.2% Fib). On the flipside, upside barriers are aligned at 122.50 (Feb.), later at 123.70 (Jan.) and above that at 124.60 (May).

If prices were to close and open below 119.80-50 region, doors would be opened to experience a sell-off towards 116.76 (short-term 50% Fib).

EUR/JPY slightly bullish above 100-DMA; Greeks never ending bailout drama