16 Jan 2014
Flash: USD/JPY rebound introduces scope to retest the 105.45/50 area - Commerzbank
Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank note that USD/JPY’s strong rebound has left us wondering if the 102.85 low was the corrective low and if the market now going to attempt to reassert its upmove.
Key Quotes
“The intraday charts have turned more positive and following the move above 104.50 we will have to allow for another run up to the 105.40/50 region again.
This represents recent highs and its long term Fibonacci retracement. We remain unable to rule out another failure here and a deeper retracement to 102.05 and possibly 101.00, the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the move up from October.
We have become more negative short term because not only has the market reversed from its long term Fibonacci retracement at 105.49, BUT we have a 13 count and also a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI. All 3 factors suggest that the market has topped for now.
Key Quotes
“The intraday charts have turned more positive and following the move above 104.50 we will have to allow for another run up to the 105.40/50 region again.
This represents recent highs and its long term Fibonacci retracement. We remain unable to rule out another failure here and a deeper retracement to 102.05 and possibly 101.00, the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the move up from October.
We have become more negative short term because not only has the market reversed from its long term Fibonacci retracement at 105.49, BUT we have a 13 count and also a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI. All 3 factors suggest that the market has topped for now.