Trump's first day - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that Trump's inaugural address was relatively short (just 1,433 words) and high level. 

Key Quotes:

"The key economic themes were putting American workers first, the need to reverse the adverse effects of trade, and the need to rebuild US infrastructure. The new White House website went live shortly after President Trump took the oath of office. It included brief issue papers on: energy, foreign policy, jobs and growth, rebuilding the military, law enforcement, and trade. These papers didn’t contain any real surprises. 

The paper on jobs and growth calls for lower tax rates for both individuals and businesses. The paper on trade includes withdrawal from TPP and a call to renegotiate NAFTA. It also calls for rigorous enforcement of existing trade deals. The paper on rebuilding the military calls for higher military spending. The paper on energy calls for a roll back of regulations that restrict US energy production and transportation. 

Trump chose not to highlight a number of issues that were important to his campaign. In particular, Trump did not discuss, either in his address or on the new White House website, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. “Obamacare”). In addition, immigration was not a focus for Trump. It was somewhat surprising that President Trump did not take any substantive policy actions today. 

We had expected him to at least reverse some of Obama’s executive orders, such as the one that established the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that protects some undocumented immigrants to the United States who entered the country as minors from deportation. 

Trump may take some of these actions in coming days. At this point, we feel that our core assumptions about economic policy under Trump – substantial fiscal stimulus from tax cuts starting in the second-half of the year, meaningful reductions over time in labor supply owing restrictive immigration policies, a moderate increase in trade protection and limited macroeconomic impact from deregulation – still seem reasonable."