Donald Trump to be inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States today - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ note that Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States today and his inaugural speech is to be written by Stephen Miller who wrote many speeches for Trump’s Presidential campaign.

Key Quotes

“The speech is expected to focus on structural problems within the US economy and outline an agenda for Trump’s first 100 days and beyond. Trump outlined his plans for his first 100 days at his 22 October Gettysburg address. The most contentious of which are his plans on trade, including withdrawing the US from TPP and labelling China a currency manipulator.”

“However, as FiveThirtyEight highlights this week, the hype of getting things done in a President’s first 100 days is probably overdone. FiveThirtyEight cites a study which shows that presidents’ first 100 days have become less productive over time. The study looked at presidents from William McKinley in 1897 to Bill Clinton in 1993, and found that the average number of laws passed during a president’s first 100 days period before the 81st Congress (1947-1949) was 46 compared to 16 in later Congresses. Subsequent to this, George W. Bush passed just seven in his first 100 days in 2001, and Barrack Obama eleven in 2009. Although productivity may have declined, FiveThirtyEight says the first 100 days is important for setting a President’s agenda.”

“Trump’s tax cuts: The San Francisco Federal Reserve published its latest Fed Views this week. As per recent Fed speak, the note says there is considerable uncertainty about the scope of policy changes that will be implemented under the incoming administration and what impact these changes may have on the FOMC’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. On tax cuts, the paper suggests a plausible estimate is that it will boost spending by 0.6% of GDP. On balance, the SF Fed says they expect the tax cuts will boost GDP by a total of about 0.4 percentage points over several years.”