US: If Trans-Pacific Partnership is dead? – BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US election results deal the coup de grace to the multilateral trade agreement called Trans-Pacific Partnership which was initially championed by the Obama Administration as a key pillar of its pivot to Asia.  

Key Quotes

“At first, Japan's Abe was not a proponent, but when he found that it would be helpful is his broader domestic economic reform efforts, he embraced it enthusiastically.”

“Clinton was also opposed to the final draft of TPP.  However, among some Japanese officials, there had been ideas that TPP could be transformed into a US-Japan bilateral agreement that could have the new Administration's stamp, set a higher bar, which others could join later.  However, this Plan B also seems dead in the water.”

“China benefits from what appears to be the likely disengagement of the US.  There is an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit this week.  It is a perfect forum for President Xi to push ahead with China's strategic counterweight to TPP.    Japanese Prime Minister Abe confirmed his intentions to shift the focus from TPP to the RCEP.  Xi hoped to wrap things up this year and reach a final agreement, but this may be ambitious.  Some countries may want to see if Trump's positions change from the election rhetoric and may drag their feet.”

“RCEP would be a lofty achievement by China, even if it falls shy of the higher bar in TPP.  It would be the first pan-Asian trade agreement.  It would cover nearly a third of the world's GDP and half the world's population.  China's plans call for marrying the RCEP to even broader agreement, Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.”

“Other countries, like China and Russia, have long chaffed under what they see as US attempt at hegemony, and are looking to move into any space from which the US withdraws. US disengagement, if that is what the demise of TPP and the threat to withdraw from NAFTA entails, this could see the return of spheres of influence, which is the approach that Russia and China have championed.”