Economic wrap: US data point to Fed Dec hike? - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered an economic wrap.

Key Quotes:

"US retail sales in October were strong, rising 0.8% (vs 0.6% expected). The core control group, the key measure that goes into GDP, jumped 0.84% in Oct, double consensus, while the prior month was also revised up +0.2ppts to +0.3%. 11 of 13 categories posted gains, pointing to a lot of breadth in sales in Oct too. A Dec Fed hike would appear to be now set in stone barring some unforeseen calamitous shock before 14 Dec.

NY (Empire) manufacturing survey also firmed, from -6.8 to +1.5, and was above consensus (-2.5) although employment and prices paid/received both fell in Nov. The bulk of the Empire survey (about 100 respondents) would have replied before the election, the survey going out on the 1st of each month, with most replying by the 10th, and some surveys accepted through to the 15th.

The GDT dairy auction overnight resulted in a 5% rise overall, with WMP up 3% and SMP up 10%. The result is roughly in line with earlier futures predictions which had priced in a response to weather affected supply."