NZ Truckometer: Topping the rise? - ANZ

Sharon Zollner, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that the New Zealand’s ANZ Heavy Traffic Index eased 0.2% in October, though the smoothed 3-month average remains positive, lifting 1.4%.

Key Quotes

“The index continues to trend upward but at a slower rate than earlier in the year. The Light Traffic Index fell 2.0% in the month (3-month average: -0.3%). It certainly deserves a breather after a phenomenal run, but it’s worth noting this is the largest monthly fall since mid-2012.

It is notable that the Heavy Traffic Index is trucking along, but the Light Traffic Index, which leads the economy by six months, had a broad-based fall. Given the speed limits being imposed on the New Zealand economy, most obviously in the forms of difficulty finding labour and tightening availability of credit, it would not be at all surprising to see growth moderate over the next six months. This wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. In fact it’s desirable if a boom/bust cycle is to be avoided.”