US: Look for control retail sales to post a 0.4% advance – RBC CM

Adam Cole, Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the US data calendar livens up today, with September retail sales the key release.

Key Quotes

“Following two very weak months, our economists expect retail sales to rebound in September. Headline sales should be boosted by very firm vehicle sales and rising gasoline prices. Beneath the surface, we look for control retail sales to post a 0.4% advance, after a -0.1% decline last month. This retail sales result would be consistent with real personal consumption growth of just under 3% in Q3.

The implied probability of a hike by December remains around 70% and as such the hurdle is high for data surprises driving USD up. Fed Chair Yellen speaks late today at a Boston Fed conference and there are likely to be BoE headlines hitting the wires all day. Q3 earnings announcement are due from Citi, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo (all before the US open).”