US: Election have tightened considerably - BBH

Research Team at BBH, notes that the polls for the US election have tightened considerably over the past fortnight.  

Key Quotes 

“Among the most authoritative analysis of US, polls is found on Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com website.  A couple of weeks ago, Trump’s chances of being the next US President were about 15%.  Now a survey of polls put his chances nearer 40%.

In terms of states for tracking the Electoral College, there are three states that Trump has edged into a small lead:  Florida (0.2%), Ohio (1.2%), and North Carolina (0.7%).  Most paths to the White House for Trump require that he carries these three states, but even if that happens, it might not be sufficient.  Pennsylvania (Clinton ahead by 3.4%) and Michigan (Clinton ahead by 3.9%) appear necessary for a Trump victory.  Where the candidate spend their time may be more important than what is said ahead of the first debate on September 26.

Previously, it looked as if the Democrats would pick up five seats in the Senate to secure a majority.  The odds have narrowed.  The chances that the Democrats could win a majority in the House of Representatives were never particularly strong, and the probability has slipped.

We think that rising interest rates, the drop in oil, and greater equity volatility have weighed on the Mexican peso (new record lows in the spot market) and the Canadian dollar.  However, anecdotally some argue that it is not coincidental that as Trump as narrowed the gap, which his criticism of Mexico and NAFTA have added pressure on the peso and Loonie.”