USD/CAD: awaiting FOMC minutes for next catalyst

While USD/CAD is ranging in a one-cent vicinity in a recovery from 1.2797, but could be hitting a road block here.

Analysts at Scotiabank explained, "USD/CAD’s decisive violation of the multi-month bullish trend is notable and has shifted the focus to downside risk toward 1.2750 and 1.2680."

The next catalyst comes in the FOMC minutes today while otherwise, the EIA data was a plus for oil, but the shorter-term candles are suggestive of a potential turn off support around 1.2800, according to the analysts at Scotiabank.

"Near-term support is expected at 1.2850 with potential resistance around the 100 day MA at 1.2937."

How volatile has USD/CAD been? 

On the hourly USD/CAD chart, ATR (14) is presently at 28 pips, while 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is shrinking and currently 57 pips. On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 371 pips. Over the past four weeks, 28 pips has been the average movement for the current session. Following the four week period average, today’s most volatile hour was between 14:00-15:00 GMT which has an average movement of 58 pips. 

What price levels and patterns have to be considered? 

With spot trading at 1.2874, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.2879 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.2919 (Daily High), 1.2928 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.2932 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.2935 (Yesterday's High). Support below can be found at 1.2865 (Daily Classic PP), 1.2862 (Monthly Low), 1.2862 (Weekly Low), 1.2862 (Daily Open) and 1.2854 (Weekly Classic S1). Looking to candlestick patterns, we can see a Piercing Line formation on the 1-hour chart.