Latest Update: Markets Are Starting to Price In a Leave Win - TDS

TD Securities predicts a REMAIN win (estimated range is 50.2% to 51.7% Remain).

Key Quotes

About 6.5% of votes have come in now, with Remain still struggling with just 46.2% of the vote. Our models continue to suggest a narrow win for Remain, but the margin of victory has narrowed since the beginning of the night. For the first time, betting odds now favour a Leave win, with the probability of a Remain win just 41%.

Key areas to watch in the next little while include Stockport (53%), Wansworth (57%), and South Lanarkshire (61%), all of whom are expected to be strong Remain (and contribute strongly to the bounce in our forecast).

Cable has dropped sharply again to below 1.41, and US 10yr yields are down over 10bps from yesterday’s London close.