Australia: Headline employment growth expected of +17k - BNZ

Research Team at BNZ, suggests that the major piece of data this week from Australia is the Employment report on Thursday and the monthly volatility in this report can make predicting the monthly employment data a foolhardy exercise.

Key Quotes

“For this month, NAB is expecting headline employment growth of +17k, marginally above the consensus of +15k and up from last month’s now revised +10.6k. NAB expects the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.7%.

One puzzle emerging from the employment report is coming from a fall in hours worked, which is occurring despite continued employment growth. It is not clear whether the falls in hours worked reflect inherent volatility in the series and hence is likely to bounce back, is a step down unrelated to employment growth as had occurred in 2012, or is reflective of greater spare capacity in the labour market than previously suggested by the headline unemployment rate.”