US: Expect a soft print for retail sales - Scotiabank

Derek Holt, Research Analyst at Scotiabank, suggests that the US retail sales during May are arriving the day before the FOMC statement and we expect a soft print.

Key Quotes

“Auto sales volumes were flat (+0.3% m/m) and when suitably weighted should be inconsequential to the headline print. Higher gasoline prices will be a positive effect on the value of retail sales but only after Thursday’s CPI report will we be able to determine what happened to retail sales volumes. As for the rest of the report, we expect a soft reading off of a fairly strong 0.9% m/m rise in the so-called retail sales ‘control group’ that subtracts categories like food, autos, building materials and gasoline for a closer proxy to how the report translates into growth in total personal consumption expenditures.”