EUR/USD intermarket: Moving toward 1.13 on risk aversion and Fed expectations

EUR/USD is about to end the day with gains and away from 1-week lows that reached earlier during the Asian session. It bottomed at 1.1231 and then turned to the upside and peaked at 1.1301. Currently is hovering slightly below 1.1300, consolidating daily gains.

The pair remains near the upside while the Dow Jones keeps testing daily lows. The index is falling 0.33%, and the Nasdaq drops 0.52%. Risk aversion boosted EUR/USD to the upside during the American session. The VIX index (CBEO Volatility Index), a fear gauge, rose from 18.50 toward 20.00 (highest level in three months) at the same time the euro broke above 1.1280.

Also, Fed Rate hike expectations weakened the US dollar in the market. While odds of a rate hike on Wednesday according to the CME Group FedWatch remains at 1.98%, odds for a July hike fell from 22.5% to 17.9%.

Bond yields also benefit the upside. The German 10-year stabilized and rose from 0.023% to 0.025% while the US 10-yr fell from 1.64% to 1.62%, lowering the spread between the two bonds and favored the upside in EUR/USD.