BoE decision likely to be a 9-0 vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% - RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that coming exactly a week before the EU referendum it is highly unlikely that the MPC minutes will reveal a significant change of view on expectations for the policy outlook.

Key Quotes 

“After all, the Committee has already highlighted the difficulty in interpreting the economic data given the probable existence of referendum distortions. As such we anticipate the decision will be a 9-0 vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%.

Although the Bank of England is largely adhering to the purdah rules followed by the Civil Service in the referendum campaign period it has the ability to carry on business as usual and the MPC minutes are once again therefore likely to highlight the risks associated with a Leave vote.

However, in his recent Treasury Select Committee appearance, Governor Carney said he “would not expect something substantially different” to the existing commentary, so the June MPC minutes aren’t expected to create further waves in the referendum debate.”