Brexit: just under 10 days away, polls still divided - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ noted that the referendum (or should we say “The Clash”) on EU membership is just under 10 days away and UK opinion polls show voters are divided.

Key Quotes:

"One poll (Friday night) put Brexit 10 points ahead of Bremain (55% versus 45%) setting off a chain of unease on Friday evening. Stepping back, a poll of polls (the average of the last six polls) for those that know how they’ll vote puts support for remain at 51% and leave at 49%. Undecided voters are still approximately 15%.

The international focus on Brexit has stepped up. The BoE has drawn up contingency plans to provide support to banks (“London Calling”). The EU is concerned about referenda in other EU countries (no “Safe European Home”) and the IMF has said that Brexit may “cause contagion and a severe market reaction” (“Rock the Casbah”). The FOMC is closely monitoring the vote and even our own RBNZ referred to political risk last week. Yay or nah is only part of the issue.

What we are seeing globally (Scottish referendum, UK EU referendum, more EU membership debates, low EU favourability polls, US political tension) is more kickback from society towards integration and more anti-globalisation. The politics associated with close votes is not good for mandates and driving good microeconomic policy."