2 Dec 2013
Flash: A very crowded Australian economic calendar - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - A very crowded Australian data week starts today, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"Nov house prices and TD Securities inflation gauge but most attention will be on official data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Oct building approvals will be noted closely by the RBA given its hope that low interest rates encourage construction, which would both help fill the growth gap as mining investment declines and keep a lid on house price growth. Sep saw a stunning 14.4% m/m surge, driven by multi-unit developments, with private houses up just 1.5%. Given this leap, a pullback seems assured in Oct, with consensus -5% but Westpac on -8%. We estimate the underlying trend growth in approvals to be 1.5% m/m. The sharper than consensus drop we expect should do little net damage to AUD given the previous month’s strength."
"We will also receive further guidance on Wed’s Q3 GDP report in company profits and inventories. Westpac looks for a 0.3% q/q rise in company profits thanks to resilient mining revenues and a softer AUD, offsetting weakness outside mining. The median forecast is 1%. Business inventories tend to have a larger impact on headline GDP. In line with consensus, we look for flat q/q, -0.1ppt detraction from GDP. Parliament resumes sitting today, with the busy agenda in the final two weeks of sitting including legislation to repeal the carbon tax/price, repeal the mining super profits tax and either raise or abolish the debt limit, which is due to be reached 10 days from now. Debt subject to limit has now risen to $296.1bn, with the ceiling set at $300bn."
Key Quotes
"Nov house prices and TD Securities inflation gauge but most attention will be on official data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Oct building approvals will be noted closely by the RBA given its hope that low interest rates encourage construction, which would both help fill the growth gap as mining investment declines and keep a lid on house price growth. Sep saw a stunning 14.4% m/m surge, driven by multi-unit developments, with private houses up just 1.5%. Given this leap, a pullback seems assured in Oct, with consensus -5% but Westpac on -8%. We estimate the underlying trend growth in approvals to be 1.5% m/m. The sharper than consensus drop we expect should do little net damage to AUD given the previous month’s strength."
"We will also receive further guidance on Wed’s Q3 GDP report in company profits and inventories. Westpac looks for a 0.3% q/q rise in company profits thanks to resilient mining revenues and a softer AUD, offsetting weakness outside mining. The median forecast is 1%. Business inventories tend to have a larger impact on headline GDP. In line with consensus, we look for flat q/q, -0.1ppt detraction from GDP. Parliament resumes sitting today, with the busy agenda in the final two weeks of sitting including legislation to repeal the carbon tax/price, repeal the mining super profits tax and either raise or abolish the debt limit, which is due to be reached 10 days from now. Debt subject to limit has now risen to $296.1bn, with the ceiling set at $300bn."