UK GDP growth in 1Q16 likely unrevised and driven by consumption - Unicredit

Research Team at Unicredit, expects UK 1Q16 GDP to be confirmed at 0.4% qoq in the second estimate.

Key Quotes

“Since the preliminary estimate was published, industrial production remained unrevised, and construction output was lowered slightly. This will have no impact on GDP growth to one decimal place.

The expenditure breakdown will probably show that growth was driven by household consumption, with investment weak due to extraction-investment cuts as well as heightened uncertainty. The trade contribution is likely to be negative, with imports rising and exports flattening.”