UK: Expect a healthy increase in retail sales in April - TDS

Research Team at TDS, notes that the UK sectoral data suggests a healthy increase in retail sales in April: industry data from John Lewis, Waitrose, and the CBI are all supportive, as was the seasonally-adjusted decline in core inflation in the month.

Key Quotes

“But unseasonably cool weather likely weighed on apparel sales (as evidenced by the decline in clothing prices that month), and uncertainty over the UK referendum looks to be weighing on sentiment, meaning that downside risks could prevail. Even accounting for the downside risks, this still leaves us above consensus of 0.6% m/m, with TD expecting a headline retail sales gain of 0.8% m/m, providing a bounce back from last month’s 1.3% m/m decline.”