USD/JPY: Hard to see a compelling argument for a bounce - Westpac

Robert Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the price action has continued through the last few days, and while USD/JPY holds trend support at 109.34 for now, without aggressive verbal intervention or more, it’s hard to see a compelling argument for a bounce.

Key Quotes

“We remain of the view that G7/G20 has come to some sort of ‘tacit agreement’ to “avoid statements that could be perceived as inconsistent with their international commitment to a market-determined exchange rate”. As such, I think FX markets will continue to push USD/ JPY lower as long as the authorities will allow. The 38.2% retracement of 75.35 in 2011 to 125.86 in 2015 comes in at 106.57. Scary as it may seem, the break of 109.34 suggests such a target may be conceivable before markets start to think about policy options at the April 27/28 BoJ meeting.”