USD/JPY: weak confidence weighs - BTMU

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that recent market reactions have clearly revealed the uncertainty surrounding QQE with a negative interest rate.

Key Quotes:

"Next week, USD/JPY is likely to drop further. In addition to the yen, recent dovish comments by FOMC members may continue to support US dollar selling. However, since the JPY long position in non-commercial sectors at CFTC has stayed near its recent high, the pace of the USD/JPY change may slow.

Furthermore, governmental officials may intervene in the market verbally, but not in reality. Though there is almost no reasoning that would lead to a G7 consensus in favor of Japanese currency intervention, market expectations of such intervention could grow, because real flows, especially the current account surplus, the JPY real interest rate rise, and weak confidence in QQE with a negative interest rate might support the USD/JPY drop on the fundamentals side."