US: Expect a single Fed hike this year - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the FOMC Minutes themselves don’t tell us much we didn’t already know.

Key Quotes

“Members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would continue to strengthen. However, they saw global economic and financial developments as continuing to pose risks.”

There’s no reason to alter a view that the Fed is likely to raise rate since this year, nor to alter a view that the Fed is watching markets every bit as closely as the US economy. We expect a single hike this year. And to be fair, there is nothing here to help the dollar; the only question is at what point the combination of decent US data (jobs, ISM in recent days) and ‘riskon’ mood change the market’s perception of Fed risks.

The Dollar index (DXY) is testing last October’s lows this morning, and looks sickly. A broader trade weighted dollar index is already below October’s lows and threatening a move to May 2015s.”