US: Growth forecasts continue to edge lower - BBH

Research Team at BBH, notes that it’s worth noting that US Q1 growth forecasts continue to edge lower.

Key Quotes

“From the Atlanta Fed’s website: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1.” Much of this was due to weak vehicle sales and downward revisions to the forecasts for real consumer spending and real equipment investment.

No wonder the US rates markets are so dovish. The US 2-year yield fell 4 bp Tuesday to 0.72%, the lowest since February 18. It has risen slightly to 0.74% today. The December 2016 Fed Funds futures contract had an implied yield of 0.515% Tuesday, the lowest since February 25. It too has risen to 0.53% today, but this still represents less than one hike this year. The Fed Funds futures strip implies less than one hike each in 2016 and 2017 too.”