1 Apr 2016
EUR/USD rangebound near-term – Danske Bank
Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair in a consolidative pattern prior to resume its upside.
Key Quotes
“We still stress that time is not yet ripe for a move towards the 1.18 level at which we project the cross in 12M: (i) our short-term models suggest USD crosses are in general oversold, (ii) USD positioning is now close to neutral (i.e. some scope for longs to be added again), (iii) clearly room for more hikes to be priced on Fed”.
“Also, EUR/USD seems to have gone somewhat ahead of the drop in EU inflation expectations, which could fuel ECB easing expectations yet again”.
“In sum we maintain our view that EUR/USD will remain range bound in the short term, albeit in a little higher range than anticipated some weeks ago”.
Key Quotes
“We still stress that time is not yet ripe for a move towards the 1.18 level at which we project the cross in 12M: (i) our short-term models suggest USD crosses are in general oversold, (ii) USD positioning is now close to neutral (i.e. some scope for longs to be added again), (iii) clearly room for more hikes to be priced on Fed”.
“Also, EUR/USD seems to have gone somewhat ahead of the drop in EU inflation expectations, which could fuel ECB easing expectations yet again”.
“In sum we maintain our view that EUR/USD will remain range bound in the short term, albeit in a little higher range than anticipated some weeks ago”.