29 Mar 2016
US: Consumer confidence and home price index preview - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, previews the US Case-Shiller 20-City home price index and consumer confidence data which are set to be released tonight.
Key Quotes
“Case-Shiller 20-City home price index: Home prices reaccelerated at the end of 2015 as limited supply of for-sale homes couldn’t keep up with the stronger demand. The higher prices are a double-edged sword: homeowners are more likely to put their homes on the market but it can also price out potential homebuyers. Consensus expects the Case-Shiller home price index to increase by 5.8% y-o-y in January similar to the prior two months’ prints, a potential sign that prices are starting to stabilize, albeit at a higher level.
Consumer Confidence: This index dropped more than expected in February to 92.2 from 97.8. The volatility in financial markets and less optimistic view on the labor markets likely hurt the consumers’ conviction in the US economy. Recently, things have stabilized in the financial markets and equity prices have trended higher. Although gasoline prices have edged higher of late, they are still relatively low compared with a year ago. Labor market indicators for March have been generally favorable. Taken together, we believe the consumer confidence index will trend higher to 95.0 in March (Consensus: 94.0).”
Key Quotes
“Case-Shiller 20-City home price index: Home prices reaccelerated at the end of 2015 as limited supply of for-sale homes couldn’t keep up with the stronger demand. The higher prices are a double-edged sword: homeowners are more likely to put their homes on the market but it can also price out potential homebuyers. Consensus expects the Case-Shiller home price index to increase by 5.8% y-o-y in January similar to the prior two months’ prints, a potential sign that prices are starting to stabilize, albeit at a higher level.
Consumer Confidence: This index dropped more than expected in February to 92.2 from 97.8. The volatility in financial markets and less optimistic view on the labor markets likely hurt the consumers’ conviction in the US economy. Recently, things have stabilized in the financial markets and equity prices have trended higher. Although gasoline prices have edged higher of late, they are still relatively low compared with a year ago. Labor market indicators for March have been generally favorable. Taken together, we believe the consumer confidence index will trend higher to 95.0 in March (Consensus: 94.0).”