18 Nov 2013
Flash: Don’t count on a 2013 taper – BBH
FXstreet.com (London) - A currency research team at BBH said the week's economic data is unlikely to encourage investors to bring forward the tapering into this year.
Key Quotes:
“Even anything, the unexpectedly weak import price index (-0.7% in October and the September series revised to a 0.1% gain instead of 0.2%, pushing the year-over-year pace to -2.0% from -1.0%) points to downside risks to measured inflation. The consensus expects the October CPI to match its 3-year low of 1.0%”.
“Meanwhile, retail sales slowed markedly in Q3, where cumulative monthly gains of 0.5% were recorded (after 1.4% in Q4), and are expect have begun Q4 on a soft note”.
“The government closure may have exacerbated the weakening trend in October, in which case some rebound should be expected in November. The FOMC minutes appear to have in part been superseded by Yellen's confirmation hearings. Perhaps some colour can still be added to what it means in that the Fed is awaiting more economic progress and its views of the fiscal threat”.
“The Empire Survey last week (November at -2.21 vs. consensus of 5.0 and an October reading of 1.52) warns that the economy may have downshifted in Q4. The Philly Fed report this week is expected to confirm the absence of a post-closure lift to the economy”.
Key Quotes:
“Even anything, the unexpectedly weak import price index (-0.7% in October and the September series revised to a 0.1% gain instead of 0.2%, pushing the year-over-year pace to -2.0% from -1.0%) points to downside risks to measured inflation. The consensus expects the October CPI to match its 3-year low of 1.0%”.
“Meanwhile, retail sales slowed markedly in Q3, where cumulative monthly gains of 0.5% were recorded (after 1.4% in Q4), and are expect have begun Q4 on a soft note”.
“The government closure may have exacerbated the weakening trend in October, in which case some rebound should be expected in November. The FOMC minutes appear to have in part been superseded by Yellen's confirmation hearings. Perhaps some colour can still be added to what it means in that the Fed is awaiting more economic progress and its views of the fiscal threat”.
“The Empire Survey last week (November at -2.21 vs. consensus of 5.0 and an October reading of 1.52) warns that the economy may have downshifted in Q4. The Philly Fed report this week is expected to confirm the absence of a post-closure lift to the economy”.