10 Mar 2016
EUR/USD forecast: all eyes on the ECB – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
The single currency keeps the bearish note vs. the greenback so far today, taking EUR/USD to the 1.0970 area ahead of the ECB meeting.
Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has been rejected by the 200 day moving average at 1.1046. Between here and the 1.1087 September low is quite a pivotal area. Ideally it will again provoke failure and as long as this is the case we will continue to target the December and March 2015 lows at 1.0523/1.0457. En route is the four month support line at 1.0854. While capped by the 1.1105 September 23 low, EUR/USD will remain directly offered. Above here will neutralise the immediate outlook. We continue to regard the 1.1377 February peak as an interim high”.
Furthermore, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Allan von Mehren suggested “If the ECB delivers as we expect, we expect EUR/USD to rise slightly on the announcement as our call is below market expectations. If the ECB cuts by, say, 20bp, we expect that EUR/USD would drop close to the 1.08 level immediately following the announcement. If the ECB decides to expand the QE programme by more than we expect, for example, through buying corporate bonds, it is unlikely to have a large impact on EUR/USD”.
Trade the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi speech – Live Coverage
Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has been rejected by the 200 day moving average at 1.1046. Between here and the 1.1087 September low is quite a pivotal area. Ideally it will again provoke failure and as long as this is the case we will continue to target the December and March 2015 lows at 1.0523/1.0457. En route is the four month support line at 1.0854. While capped by the 1.1105 September 23 low, EUR/USD will remain directly offered. Above here will neutralise the immediate outlook. We continue to regard the 1.1377 February peak as an interim high”.
Furthermore, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Allan von Mehren suggested “If the ECB delivers as we expect, we expect EUR/USD to rise slightly on the announcement as our call is below market expectations. If the ECB cuts by, say, 20bp, we expect that EUR/USD would drop close to the 1.08 level immediately following the announcement. If the ECB decides to expand the QE programme by more than we expect, for example, through buying corporate bonds, it is unlikely to have a large impact on EUR/USD”.
Trade the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi speech – Live Coverage