10 Mar 2016
Volatility here we come in the ECB - Westpac
Analysts at Westpac explained that all we know to expect from the ECB is FX volatility.
Key Quotes:
"New easing measures seem very likely, but the extent of these is open to considerable debate. The initial focus is the brief statement on interest rates (11:45pm Syd/8:45pm Sing/HK) where the deposit rate will surely be lowered from -0.3%.
A conservative move would be -0.4%; we lean towards -0.5%. There has also been some talk of a tiered deposit structure a la Bank of Japan, but this seems fairly unlikely. Forty-five minutes later is the full statement and press conference, when we will find out what measures are being adopted.
EUR should soar if the ECB doesn't announce an increase in the monthly total of bond purchases from the current EUR60bn. A move to EUR70bn seems the minimum for any change, with EUR80bn probably aggressive enough to drive EUR losses."
Key Quotes:
"New easing measures seem very likely, but the extent of these is open to considerable debate. The initial focus is the brief statement on interest rates (11:45pm Syd/8:45pm Sing/HK) where the deposit rate will surely be lowered from -0.3%.
A conservative move would be -0.4%; we lean towards -0.5%. There has also been some talk of a tiered deposit structure a la Bank of Japan, but this seems fairly unlikely. Forty-five minutes later is the full statement and press conference, when we will find out what measures are being adopted.
EUR should soar if the ECB doesn't announce an increase in the monthly total of bond purchases from the current EUR60bn. A move to EUR70bn seems the minimum for any change, with EUR80bn probably aggressive enough to drive EUR losses."