8 Mar 2016
China: Exports decline not as bad as it seems - Danske
According to analysts from Danske Bank, today’s report on trade from China, that showed a sharp decline in exports is not as weak as it seems, considering the effects of the Chinese New Year and still shows a moderately rising trend.
Key Quotes:
“Chinese exports grabbed the headlines today, showing a decline of 20.6% y/y in February (…) However, the big decline in the y/y rate is largely the result of the monthly jump of 17% m/m in February last year. The data is notoriously volatile and the distortion caused by the Chinese New Year makes matters worse.”
“We expect the March number to show a rebound in the y/y rate, as exports declined more than 33% m/m in March 2015. This means that if the level of exports is unchanged from February to March this year, the y/y rate will jump sharply to around +10%, which would be the highest number since February 2015.”
“The bottom line is that one should be cautious when looking at one month’s exports growth measured on a y/y basis. When looking at the trend, the picture is far better than meets the eye.”
Key Quotes:
“Chinese exports grabbed the headlines today, showing a decline of 20.6% y/y in February (…) However, the big decline in the y/y rate is largely the result of the monthly jump of 17% m/m in February last year. The data is notoriously volatile and the distortion caused by the Chinese New Year makes matters worse.”
“We expect the March number to show a rebound in the y/y rate, as exports declined more than 33% m/m in March 2015. This means that if the level of exports is unchanged from February to March this year, the y/y rate will jump sharply to around +10%, which would be the highest number since February 2015.”
“The bottom line is that one should be cautious when looking at one month’s exports growth measured on a y/y basis. When looking at the trend, the picture is far better than meets the eye.”