7 Mar 2016
USD/JPY: a double bottom at JPY111.00? - BBH
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that since the start of the year, speculators in the futures market have amassed the largest net long yen position since late-2012.
Key Quotes:
"The gross long position has risen from 26.4k contracts (each contract is worth JPY12.5 mln) to 94.1k as of March 1. The gross short position has been slashed from 113k contracts in mid-November to 34.4k contracts as of last Tuesday.
The dollar reached its high here in Q1 on January 29 near JPY121.70 in the knee-jerk response to the BOJ's surprise adoption of negative interest rates. The low was recorded (according to Bloomberg) just below JPY111.00 on February 11. The high since the low was set almost JPY114.90.
Technically, the dollar appears to have put in a double bottom near JPY111.00, but it needs to get above the neckline, which is a trendline with a slight downward slope and is found near JPY114.40 at the end of the week.
If the neckline is overcome, the dollar-yen may be forging a new range. In our experience, the dollar-yen is often range-bound. When it looks like it is trending, it frequently is simply moving from one range to another."
Key Quotes:
"The gross long position has risen from 26.4k contracts (each contract is worth JPY12.5 mln) to 94.1k as of March 1. The gross short position has been slashed from 113k contracts in mid-November to 34.4k contracts as of last Tuesday.
The dollar reached its high here in Q1 on January 29 near JPY121.70 in the knee-jerk response to the BOJ's surprise adoption of negative interest rates. The low was recorded (according to Bloomberg) just below JPY111.00 on February 11. The high since the low was set almost JPY114.90.
Technically, the dollar appears to have put in a double bottom near JPY111.00, but it needs to get above the neckline, which is a trendline with a slight downward slope and is found near JPY114.40 at the end of the week.
If the neckline is overcome, the dollar-yen may be forging a new range. In our experience, the dollar-yen is often range-bound. When it looks like it is trending, it frequently is simply moving from one range to another."