1 Mar 2016
Fed’s Dudley: March rate hike is very unlikely - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that there is some interest in comments from NY Fed President Dudley in China as he is confirming what the market knows.
Key Quotes
“A March rate hike is very unlikely. Dudley expressed less confidence about the inflation outlook, warning that expectations have become unanchored. He also warned that further deterioration in inflation expectations as tracked by the University of Michigan or the Fed's own consumer survey would be worrisome. He warned that the tightening of financial conditions if sustained could lead to a significant downgrade in the Fed's outlook.
This points to a change in the dot plots at the mid-March FOMC meeting. The irony here is that measured core inflation (both CPI and the PCE deflator) both rose more than expected in January.”
Key Quotes
“A March rate hike is very unlikely. Dudley expressed less confidence about the inflation outlook, warning that expectations have become unanchored. He also warned that further deterioration in inflation expectations as tracked by the University of Michigan or the Fed's own consumer survey would be worrisome. He warned that the tightening of financial conditions if sustained could lead to a significant downgrade in the Fed's outlook.
This points to a change in the dot plots at the mid-March FOMC meeting. The irony here is that measured core inflation (both CPI and the PCE deflator) both rose more than expected in January.”