25 Feb 2016
China: Trend of gradual deceleration continues – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the trend of gradual deceleration continues as the export and investment led growth model reached its limit.
Key Quotes
“China will not revisit 1990-00s growth rates of 10 per cent per annum; the government will target growth of 6.5-7 per cent through 2020 – below 7.0 per cent for the first time since the 1970s.
But fears of a sharp slowdown (a “hard landing”) are overdone and not supported by macro data which continue to point to a very gradual slowdown – even if concerns are understandable. Further monetary and fiscal policy easing, which we expect, should continue supporting growth in the short-term.”
Key Quotes
“China will not revisit 1990-00s growth rates of 10 per cent per annum; the government will target growth of 6.5-7 per cent through 2020 – below 7.0 per cent for the first time since the 1970s.
But fears of a sharp slowdown (a “hard landing”) are overdone and not supported by macro data which continue to point to a very gradual slowdown – even if concerns are understandable. Further monetary and fiscal policy easing, which we expect, should continue supporting growth in the short-term.”